Monday, August 04, 2008

Small Men

I do not have the time and the sense of writing. However, while looking at the headlines related to the current crisis between Iran and US (and Israel) I suddenly remembered NPR's review (a couple of weeks ago) of a new book on Cuban missile crisis in 60's that brought the world closest to an atomic disaster than ever before. A main point raised by the author of the new book was the importance of small men's decisions and random effects during a crisis. Apparently, leaders of US and soviet both wanted to avoid a disaster, but they also had the vision that small, and maybe random, events can have a catastrophic effect in a crisis situation, and the book gives an example of such events. The point here is that many of the current leaders, especially in Iran, do not recognize or underestimate the the potential effects of such small random events and small men decisions in this situation ...


  1. If the small men's decisions and random effects would have such an impact on the outcome, why would it matter whether the current leaders recognize their importance?

    In other words, those decisions and random effects should change the course, anyhow, no matter what the leaders realize. Maybe an example would help me understand better.

  2. Leaders who recognize the small men effect try their best to avoid the situations that would amplify the possible negative impacts of such factors, i.e. keep away from serious long-lasting hyper-tensions

    In our lives, the example is that having too much tension may make us more susceptible to random events

    does it make any sense?

  3. Yes it does. However, I've started to believe that there is no such thing as random events. It's not something I can provide proof for though. Not yet! :)

  4. Well, we are apparently going in opposite directions as I am finding the randomness more and more critical in life !


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